Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and theadecision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.a This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips vii Preface ix Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15 Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33 Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65 Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 95 Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117 Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161 Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187 Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221 Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245 Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275 Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297 Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309 Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337 Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361 Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387 Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423 Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions 437 Suggested answers to selected questions 469 Index 475
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