This book provides scholars and students with the first comprehensive guide to the use and evaluation of natural experiments ? an increasingly popular methodology in the social sciences. It introduces the key issues in causal inference, including model specification, and emphasizes the importance of strong research design over complex statistical analysis.
1. Introduction: why natural experiments?; Part I. Discovering Natural Experiments: 2. Standard natural experiments; 3. Regression-discontinuity designs; 4. Instrumental-variables designs; Part II. Analyzing Natural Experiments: 5. Simplicity and transparency: keys to quantitative analysis; 6. Sampling processes and standard errors; 7. The central role of qualitative evidence; Part III. Evaluating Natural Experiments: 8. How plausible is as-if random?; 9. How credible is the model?; 10. How relevant is the intervention?; Part IV. Conclusion: 11. Building strong research designs through multi-method research.