Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips vii
Preface ix
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15
Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33
Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65
Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 95
Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117
Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161
Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187
Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221
Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245
Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275
Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297
Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309
Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337
Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361
Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387
Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423
Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions 437
Suggested answers to selected questions 469
Index 475
